Understanding Why Some Supercell Storms Produce Tornadoes and Hail

Scientists have a good handle on the types of atmospheric conditions that are conducive to the formation of tornadoes. However, the understanding of why one storm in the same region at the same time will produce a tornado, while another doesn’t, remains elusive. This project will make use of a set of existing supercell numerical simulations to explain the volatility in tornado and hail production that is linked to variations in storm motion and structure. The work will help to improve forecasting, nowcasting and warnings for severe weather. Workforce development will occur through the training and mentoring of graduate students and public outreach efforts will reach students in local schools. This project will address questions about the variability of storms forming in nearly identical environments by exploiting set of six different sets of supercell simulations. This “ensemble of ensembles” will be analyzed using traditional and machine learning approaches to address three specific scientific objectives: 1) explain the variability in supercell storm motion and how it modulates tornado probability; 2) explain the variability in supercell vertical structure and how it modulates tornado probability; and, 3) explain the variability in supercell hail production. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. NSF Award ID: 2605535 | Program: 01002627DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT | Principal Investigator: Matthew Parker | Institution: North Carolina State University, RALEIGH, NC | Award Amount: $649,698 View on NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2605535 View on Research.gov: https://www.research.gov/awardapi-service/v1/awards/2605535.html