Understanding How Near-Ground Turbulence Contributes to Tornado Formation

The development of tornadoes from supercell thunderstorms is a highly complex process. Scientists understand the atmospheric conditions that are most conducive to tornado development, but the exact process by which the tornado occurs, and why one supercell will develop a tornado while a similar one does not, is still elusive. This project will investigate a new line of research into the idea that the turbulent near-ground atmosphere in the vicinity of a supercell is a primary contributor to tornado development. The work has implications for real-time tornado warnings for public safety, and the research team plans significant public outreach efforts and career development activities for students. Prior findings from the research team have suggested that coherent structures in the turbulent boundary layer play a key role in tornadogenesis. This topic will be investigated further using a mix of numerical modeling, machine learning, and analysis of in-storm thermodynamic observations. Primary objectives include: 1) applying machine learning to identify subtle storm features associated with tornado potential using prior numerical simulations, 2) examining how predictability changes near critical environmental thresholds, and (3) further investigating the newly identified pathway for tornadogenesis through new targeted numerical simulations. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. NSF Award ID: 2536058 | Program: 01002627DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT | Principal Investigator: Paul Markowski | Institution: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park, UNIVERSITY PARK, PA | Award Amount: $1,099,777 View on NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2536058 View on Research.gov: https://www.research.gov/awardapi-service/v1/awards/2536058.html