The role of evolving topography on lava flow emplacement: An important process for understanding eruption hazards and flow-field development

Recent eruptions occurred at Fagradalsfjall volcano in Iceland near a large population center. The eruptions were hazardous and well documented. This study will investigate the Fagradalsfjall eruptions to provide new insight on lava flows. Analysis of eruption data will include changes in flow paths and lava travel speeds. Lava flow models will be adapted to understand how landforms influence flows and can modify hazards during an eruption. Results will be applicable to volcanoes worldwide and improve understanding of eruption behavior and hazards. This project will investigate processes controlling lava flow-field growth and hazards by addressing the ways in which evolving topography, caused by lava emplacement, affect subsequent lava flow and emplacement. Evolving topography can reroute lava flows and result in the sudden release of stored lava causing rapid inundation of new areas and changes to hazards. The 2021-20223 eruptions at Fagradalsfjall were among the most densely observed volcanic events in history and allow for the first time a detailed investigation of the effects of evolving topography using high spatial and temporal resolution topographic data derived from airborne surveys. This project will address the fundamental role of evolving topography on flow emplacement through: (1) application of structure- from- motion photogrammetry to produce Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and orthomosaic basemaps from airborne images; (2) use of these basemaps to map flow-field features, pathways and facies; (3) collection of new high- resolution airborne datasets and ground-truth mapped facies; and (4) numerical modeling of lava flow emplacement. These efforts will result in a time-series of DEMs and orthomosaics spanning the Fagradalsfjall eruptions, and creation of a novel time-series of maps showing lava facies and flow pathways. This will allow unprecedented descriptions and understanding of complex emplacement processes resulting from evolving topography and evaluation of how evolving topography modifies hazards. Results will be used for improved hazard assessment and will be applicable to volcanoes worldwide. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. NSF Award ID: 2533395 | Program: 01002627DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT | Principal Investigator: Brett Carr | Institution: University of Arizona, TUCSON, AZ | Award Amount: $654,000 View on NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2533395 View on Research.gov: https://www.research.gov/awardapi-service/v1/awards/2533395.html