Responses of butterfly and associated plant communities in mesic ecosystems to aridification of the western United States

This research will advance scientific understanding of the effects of aridification (a long-term transition to a drier climate) on butterfly and plant communities in montane meadows, marshes, and riparian ecosystems in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Great Basin. Declines in butterflies and other beneficial insect species have been documented nationwide, but whether these declines are occurring across large areas, or for the same reasons, is unclear. This research will determine whether long-term changes in butterfly and plant species coincident with aridification can be explained by traits that affect their survival and reproduction. For butterflies, these traits include the types of plants on which the caterpillars and adult butterflies feed and the number of generations per year. For plants, these traits include whether they are shrubs, trees, flowers, or grasses. Physical and biological consequences of aridification such as changes in snow cover, temperature, and timing and duration of the growing season also can affect butterfly and plant survival and reproduction. Artificial intelligence (AI) will be used to build and test models of changes in snow cover, plant growing seasons, and the size and configuration of water-dependent plant communities associated with aridification. Participation of students in this research will contribute to training the next generation of scientists and educating them on the use of AI in scientific research. The research also will inform management of public lands and facilitate public engagement through an interactive museum display and community science opportunities. Understanding how functional traits affect responses to environmental change enables projection of the future structure of communities and ecosystems. This research will advance scientific understanding by assessing the direct and indirect effects of aridification across two trophic levels, plants and insects, and by use of species’ traits to predict responses. The transferability of this research will be strengthened by working in two ecosystems with long-term data: the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Great Basin. Legacy and new field data on butterflies and plants, and remotely sensed data on aridification and its drivers, will be used to test four hypotheses. First, host plant and nectar source availability interact with abiotic drivers of aridification to explain butterfly occurrence trends. Second, the direction of those trends is associated with functional group of host plants, whether adults feed on nectar, and voltinism. Third, abundances of perennial herbs and woody plants are changing with aridification. Fourth, these trends in butterflies and plants are similar across the sagebrush biome. This research will complement the modest understanding of long-term changes in vertebrate communities in the western United States and elucidate whether aridification is contributing to long-term declines of beneficial insects across the region. It will also advance the use of AI to build and test models of aridification, its hydroclimate drivers, and phenology, and will train students in the AI national priority area. Established collaborations between the investigators and government agencies will inform management of the sagebrush biome, and community engagement and graduate and continuing education opportunities will contribute to broader impacts. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. NSF Award ID: 2555876 | Program: 01002627DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT | Principal Investigator: Diane Debinski | Institution: Montana State University, BOZEMAN, MT | Award Amount: $934,127 View on NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2555876 View on Research.gov: https://www.research.gov/awardapi-service/v1/awards/2555876.html