Longitudinal Trajectories of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors in Mexican-Origin Youth: The Role of Clinical Risk Factors and Culturally Relevant Protective Factors

Suicide is the third leading cause of death for youth aged 10 to 28, with Latine adolescents and young adults experiencing disproportionately high rates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). Despite this, Latine youth are significantly underrepresented in suicide research. This R21 project aims to identify key risk and protective factors influencing the developmental trajectories of STBs in an existing sample of 674 Mexican-origin youth, followed longitudinally from age 10 to 28. The proposed research leverages data from the California Families Project (CFP), a 19-year longitudinal study that provides a robust, multi-informant, and multi-method dataset. This study is innovative in its focus on the interaction between clinical symptoms and sociocultural factors, and their combined influence on the trajectories of STBs across critical developmental stages. It is one of the first studies to comprehensively explore STB trajectories in Mexican-origin youth, a high-risk yet understudied group. Guided by the Family Stress Model (FSM), a culturally informed framework, this study will address significant gaps in the literature by examining STB trajectories, clinical predictors, and culturally relevant protective factors. Aim 1 will chart the longitudinal trajectories of STBs from preadolescence through young adulthood. Aim 2 will investigate how key clinical symptoms (depression, anxiety, substance use) predict the initial levels and rate of change in STBs. Aim 3 will identify sociocultural factors (ethnic pride, familismo) that compensate for or moderate the impact of clinical symptoms on STB trajectories. This research is significant because it has the potential to inform the development of culturally responsive and developmentally informed suicide interventions for Latine youth. By understanding the sociocultural context and specific risk pathways in Latine families, the findings could advance scientific knowledge and lead to targeted, effective strategies to reduce suicide rates among high-risk youth populations. The study’s innovative approach and the use of a rich longitudinal dataset underscore its feasibility and relevance to the NIMH mission of improving mental health outcomes and reducing suicide disparities for Latine youth. Project Number: 1R21MH141538-01 | Fiscal Year: 2026 | NIH Institute/Center: National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) | Principal Investigator: Jocelyn Meza | Institution: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES, LOS ANGELES, CA | Award Amount: $436,934 | Activity Code: R21 | Study Section: Psychosocial Development, Risk and Prevention Study Section[PDRP] View on NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/11218474