Collaborative Research: Origination Selectivity for Body Size among Marine Animals since the Late Neoproterozoic

This project seeks to understand how marine animal body size, and thus biodiversity, have been shaped by environmental change over Earth’s history. By assembling the most comprehensive database of fossil body size measurements spanning the last 575 million years, the project will test whether the appearance of new marine animals follows predictable patterns linked to environmental factors. While most paleontological work has examined why animal taxa disappear, this study focuses on how new taxa originate, filling a fundamental gap in understanding of biodiversity generation. The findings will improve forecasts of how today’s rapidly shifting environments may affect species emergence and ecosystem resilience, issues that intersect national interests in food security, coastal economies, and biodiversity. The project will (1) build on a standardized database of marine animal body size measurements, incorporating previously unpublished Ediacaran body-size data; (2) test whether size bias of origination differs among major taxonomic groups, varies through geologic time, and changes consistently under distinct environmental regimes; and (3) evaluate the influence of sampling completeness on observed selectivity patterns. Body size is the chosen metric because it is easy to measure and correlates with key animal traits such as metabolic rate and generation time. Statistical models will be applied to assess correlations between body size trends and proxies for marine anoxia, temperature, and other environmental variables. The resulting analyses will quantify origination selectivity, a dimension that has been largely undocumented, and will generate open-access data for the broader scientific community. The anticipated outcomes include improved predictive tools for assessing how future environmental change may shape biodiversity, and training the STEM workforce. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. NSF Award ID: 2516616 | Program: 01002627DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT | Principal Investigator: Pedro Monarrez | Institution: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, BLACKSBURG, VA | Award Amount: $522,394 View on NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2516616 View on Research.gov: https://www.research.gov/awardapi-service/v1/awards/2516616.html